Perpetually 5 to 10 Years Away....
I think “AGI” or Artifical General Intelligence will be like nuclear fusion, perpetually 5 to 10 years away.
“Ask someone in AI for their timeline, and they’ll tell you when they expect the arrival of AGI—artificial general intelligence—which is sometimes defined as AI technology that can match the abilities of humans at most tasks. As AI’s sophistication has scaled—thanks to faster computers, better algorithms, and more data—timelines have compressed. The leaders of major AI labs… have recently said they expect AGI within a few years.”
It doesn’t help that there is no consencus on the defintion of the term “AGI” itself:
“While benchmarking any intellectual ability is tough, doing so for AGI presents special challenges. That’s in part because people strongly disagree on its definition: Some define AGI by its performance on benchmarks, others by its internal workings, its economic impact, or vibes. So the first step toward measuring the intelligence of AI is agreeing on the general concept.”